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Is Russia going to attack Ukraine

Is Russia going to attack Ukraine in 2021?

Is Russia going to attack Ukraine? Russia and Ukraine border tension has increased, turning into a geopolitical problem

Russia-Ukraine conflict

Russia and Ukraine border tension has increased, turning into an international and geopolitical problem for USA and NATO nations. Before going into the depth of this, let us understand a little history of Russia and Ukraine. 

Russia and Ukraine go back to the age of the Cold war. When 15 nations, including Russia and Ukraine, were part of one big nation known as the USSR or The Soviet nation. These 15 nations emerged and re-emerged from the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics following its breakup in 1991.

History of Russia and Ukraine

Is Russia going to attack Ukraine
Is Russia going to attack Ukraine

Russia and Ukraine two-nation having border tension growing day by day are due to the division of Ukraine into two different ideological groups, one with its leverage towards NATO and EU groups and second with its neighbouring border nation Russia. This has caused big division and a way to divide this nation by the two big power nation, the USA and Russia, to win over the geopolitical area. In 2014 when Russia took one big part of Ukraine, i.e. Crimea, annexe into their nation.

Crimea is an essential asset for Russia for oil and natural gas extraction. According to Ukraine’s Energy Minister, Ukraine has lost 80% of oil and natural gas deposits in the black sea and a significant part of port infrastructure due to the annexation of Crimea. Sevastopol, a seaport of Crimea, brings Russia an economic and strategical favour. Sevastopol has served as the primary source in supplying the Assad regime during Syria’s Civil war and proved helpful with Russia’s role in dismantling Syria’s Chemical weapons. Crimea is essential for Russia strategically and economically.

The growing tension in the Donbas region of Ukraine due to conflict between pro-Russian separatists and the Ukrainian army has brought death to more than 13000 citizens. 

To stop this conflict, MINSK II was agreed on 12th February 2015. It was signed after extensive talks in Minsk, Belarus, Under the Auspices of the Organization of security and co-operation in Europe. The purpose was to bring peace into the eastern Ukraine region of Ukraine. But, this MINSK II was broken, and tension still escalated in the Eastern part of Ukraine. 

In 2020, Ukrainian, Russian, and OSCE negotiations reached an agreement in July 2020. For a complete ceasefire between government forces and the Pro-Russian separatists in Eastern Ukraine.

This Negotiation was broken and confirmed by the Ukrainian parliament by systematically violating a ceasefire in the conflict in eastern Ukraine, which was agreed on in July 2020. 

Why did the peace agreement fail between Russia and Ukraine?

Russian army

The reason for the failure of this agreement has two reasons:

1.)   Water: After 2014, according to Russian officials, the region has seen its reserves of potable water declined by 60% under Russian occupation. Also, It will entirely run out of supplies of this critical natural resource sometime in the summer

Before 2014, Crimea had no shortage of water when Crimea use to come under Ukraine then its 86.65% water intake was through the Dnieper River, which flows between Ukraine from North to South.

When Russia annexed Crimea, Ukraine Cut out the Supply of water, and hence Crimea faced water scarcity in its region. 

In 2019 Russian President Vladimir Putin held a meeting. During the meeting on the socio-economic development of Crimea and Sevastopol.

2.)   Joe Biden Presidency: President Joe Biden ordered on his first full day in office into four areas.

  1. Interference of Russia in US election.
  2. Attack of Russian hackers in Solar-winds software.
  3. Reports of Russian bounties on the US Soldiers in Afghanistan.
  4. Attack and The Poisoning of Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny

Some Officials say President Vladimir Putin has broken the ceasefire to test President Joe Biden. Due to this, Biden Vows US backing in Ukraine Region due to being under pressure. 

On 9th April 2021 US is considering sending warships to the black sea amid Russia-Ukraine tensions.

Is Russia and Ukraine at war presently?

Russia and Ukraine war

In Feb 2021, Russian announced they would deploy their paratroopers in the Crimea region and conduct an exercise. Even Ukraine has deployed its Troops near the Crimea region. This exercise was supposed to end on 23rd March and depart from the Ukraine Borders, but this didn’t happen.

On 9th April Russian Spokesperson has confirmed a full-scale war in the Eastern region of Ukraine. 

It’s pretty alarming as US interference in this region and the growing tensions might lead to a big Full-fledged war.

Is Russia going to attack Ukraine
Is Russia going to attack Ukraine
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Uday Singh
Uday Singh

In my belief knowledge is the power it can be any form whether it's mental, spiritual, or physical and I try learning as much as can.

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